Arthur Hayes Sees 20x Upside For NEAR, 5x For Zcash Within One Year

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, projects 20x upside for NEAR and 5x for Zcash over one year, positioning both as core holdings in a privacy-focused trade tied to surveillance concerns and AI-era geopolitics. Hayes frames the opportunity within a macro thesis of government-funded AI capex creating liquidity tailwinds for crypto, while connecting NEAR's cross-chain intent layer to Zcash's privacy capabilities.

Arthur Hayes' bullish thesis on NEAR and Zcash reflects a maturing narrative around privacy as a geopolitical and technological imperative. His macro framework—that governments will monetarily expand to fund AI infrastructure and wartime economies—creates a liquidity backdrop for risk assets. This contrasts with his earlier caution that markets were pricing an AI deflationary shock. The shift hinges on perceived policy certainty around government-underwritten AI capex in the US and China.

Hayes' specific positioning reveals deeper thinking about execution layers versus expression assets. Zcash represents the purest privacy value transfer mechanism, while NEAR functions as the infrastructure enabling cross-chain confidential transactions. His $1 million Zcash purchase following Naval Ravikant's discussion of Monero's weaknesses signals conviction, though Hayes acknowledges Zcash's technical history created entry barriers for earlier investors.

The NEAR Intents narrative—achieving $18.9 billion lifetime volume with $33 million in fees—addresses a critical infrastructure gap: making private transfers practical across assets and chains. NEAR's tokenomics advantage (full dilution and fee buyback mechanisms) differentiates it from L1 peers carrying venture allocation overhangs. This structural clarity matters for tokens expected to benefit from broad liquidity inflows.

However, Hayes explicitly flags macro risks. His willingness to hold depends on continued government AI spending and geopolitical conditions sustaining liquidity. A retreat from monetary expansion or de-escalation in conflict scenarios could invalidate the thesis. The importance of these externalities suggests the trade carries leverage to policy shifts beyond crypto fundamentals.

• →Hayes projects NEAR at 20x and Zcash at 5x upside within one year, anchored to a macro thesis of government-funded AI capex creating liquidity spillover
• →NEAR Intents has reached $18.9 billion lifetime volume, positioning the protocol as infrastructure for practical cross-chain private transfers
• →Hayes views NEAR's clean token supply (full dilution, no venture overhang) as a structural advantage relative to other L1 assets in an upmarket scenario
• →The privacy trade depends on macro conditions including sustained government AI spending and geopolitical conflict; de-escalation or monetary tightening poses tail risks
• →Zcash's renewed investability stems from resolution of earlier concerns around trusted setup and developer subsidies, plus perceived superiority over Monero's ring signatures