The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape

Bitcoin has reclaimed $66,000 but faces structural headwinds as exchange reserves increased by 28,489 BTC since January 14, indicating persistent selling pressure. The 30-day moving average of exchange netflows shifted from negative to positive, signaling a regime change from accumulation to distribution that limits sustainable price expansion.

• →Bitcoin exchange reserves grew from 2.723M to 2.752M BTC since January 14, adding roughly 28,489 BTC or 1% over 45 days.
• →The 30-day moving average of exchange netflows flipped from -1,187 BTC to +628 BTC, indicating a structural shift from accumulation to distribution.
• →Rising exchange balances historically imply expanding sell-side supply pressure that constrains bullish momentum.
• →Bitcoin is testing macro support near the 200-week moving average at $66K after rejection from $120K-$130K highs.
• →A reclaim of mid-$80K region would be required to restore bullish structure, while failure to defend current support could expose deeper downside.