CLARITY Act Momentum Slows As Approval Odds Fall To 60%

Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn downgraded his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a crowded Senate calendar and unresolved legislative issues rather than declining political support. The informal July 4 target date for advancing the crypto market-structure bill now appears less likely to be met.

The CLARITY Act represents a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. The legislation aims to resolve a fundamental jurisdictional dispute between the SEC and CFTC by classifying tokens as either securities (SEC oversight) or commodities (CFTC oversight). This clarity would eliminate significant regulatory uncertainty that has constrained crypto development and exchange operations domestically. Thorn's reassessment reveals a critical distinction: the bill's collapse stems not from political opposition but from procedural constraints. Support among lawmakers remains intact, suggesting the underlying consensus for reform has solidified even as external pressures delay advancement.

The Senate calendar has become the primary bottleneck. A failed FISA reauthorization vote triggered extensive follow-up legislative work, consuming floor time that crypto advocates hoped would accommodate market-structure legislation. Additionally, two substantive issues—ethics rules for lawmakers and illicit finance provisions—remain unresolved, further complicating the path forward. These sticking points are not trivial; they reflect legitimate policy concerns that require negotiation.

For the crypto industry, the timeline extension carries mixed implications. While delayed passage postpones regulatory certainty, the persistence of bipartisan support suggests eventual victory becomes more probable than the alternative. Investors and project developers should prepare for prolonged uncertainty while maintaining confidence in the bill's eventual enactment. The revised 60% probability still represents reasonable odds, though stakeholders cannot rely on 2026 passage. Market participants should monitor Senate scheduling decisions and track movement on ethics and illicit-finance provisions, as either development could accelerate or further delay the bill's progress.

• →CLARITY Act passage odds declined from 75% to 60% due to Senate scheduling conflicts, not loss of political support.
• →A failed FISA reauthorization vote consumed legislative floor time needed for crypto market-structure bills.
• →Unresolved disagreements on ethics rules and illicit-finance provisions add complexity to the bill's path forward.
• →The July 4 informal deadline for advancing the legislation now appears less achievable.
• →Regulatory clarity on SEC-CFTC jurisdictional boundaries remains critical for domestic crypto development and exchange compliance.