Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that recession odds are approaching 50% as oil prices climb above $100 per barrel. Iran's rejection of a U.S. peace proposal could trigger economic turmoil by midyear, adding geopolitical risk to mounting economic concerns.

• →Mark Zandi estimates recession probability is creeping toward 50%.
• →Oil prices are steadily climbing above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions.
• →Iran has rejected a U.S. peace proposal, escalating regional conflict risks.
• →Potential Iran war could trigger economic turmoil by midyear according to Moody's economist.
• →Rising energy costs and geopolitical instability are key recession risk factors.