Morgan Stanley estimates $2.9T in global data-center capex through 2028

Morgan Stanley projects $2.9 trillion in global data-center capital expenditure through 2028, driven by AI infrastructure demands. This massive investment wave could reshape financial markets and create new credit risks as companies race to monetize AI capabilities.

Morgan Stanley's $2.9 trillion data-center capex forecast represents a seismic shift in how global infrastructure capital flows over the next four years. This projection reflects the intensifying competition among technology giants and cloud providers to build the computational backbone required for large language models and enterprise AI deployment. The scale of investment dwarfs traditional infrastructure spending, signaling that AI infrastructure has become a primary driver of capital allocation decisions across the tech sector.

The acceleration in data-center construction stems from the explosive growth in AI model training and inference demands. Every major tech company—from hyperscalers like AWS, Microsoft, and Google to emerging players—is locked in a capital race to secure competitive advantages in AI services. This trend follows years of underinvestment in data-center capacity, creating a bottleneck that now demands urgent remediation.

For financial markets, this capital redeployment carries dual implications. On one hand, sustained capex spending supports equipment manufacturers, construction firms, and energy providers, potentially boosting GDP growth and employment. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's framing of "AI monetization risks" highlights that these investments assume successful commercial returns from AI applications. If companies fail to generate adequate returns on these massive expenditures, credit markets could face significant stress, particularly among lenders exposed to tech sector leverage.

Investors should monitor data-center utilization rates and AI service adoption metrics as indicators of whether capex investments will yield promised returns. Energy markets will also face pressure as data centers consume substantial electricity, creating new bottlenecks and pricing dynamics in power markets.

• →Morgan Stanley projects $2.9T in data-center capex through 2028, driven by AI infrastructure demands
• →This investment wave could reshape global GDP growth and financial markets
• →Massive capex bets assume successful AI monetization—failure poses credit market risks
• →Data-center capital race reflects competitive intensity among hyperscalers and tech companies
• →Energy and power markets face new pressure from unprecedented electricity consumption growth