Investors priced in a 6-week Iraq War but it lasted 8 years and cost $3 trillion. They’re doing it again

The article draws parallels between current geopolitical tensions and the Iraq War, suggesting investors are underestimating the duration and cost of military conflicts. With oil prices above $100 per barrel and Iran's leadership changes, markets may be pricing in short-term disruption rather than prolonged instability.

• →Investors historically underestimate the duration and economic impact of military conflicts.
• →Oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel amid current geopolitical tensions.
• →Iran has appointed a new Supreme Leader, adding uncertainty to regional stability.
• →The White House lacks a clear exit strategy for current military involvement.
• →The Iraq War lasted 8 years and cost $3 trillion, far exceeding initial market expectations of 6 weeks.