AIBullisharXiv – CS AI · 3h ago7/10
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Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting
Researchers propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), a novel method that improves large language model forecasting by converting point estimates into probability distributions using both binary outcomes and aggregated human forecast signals. The approach demonstrates better calibration and accuracy than existing post-hoc methods while leveraging epistemic uncertainty as a more reliable error predictor than verbalized confidence.