AINeutralarXiv – CS AI · 10h ago6/10
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Leakage-Aware Benchmarking of LLM Forecasting: Real-Time Nowcasts as the Decision-Time Input for Macro Factor Ranking
Researchers benchmark a retrieval-augmented LLM system for equity factor ranking using strictly decision-time information, avoiding data leakage common in forecasting benchmarks. The 7B model achieves modest positive results (median IC +0.154) comparable to simpler kNN baselines, suggesting real-time macro data and historical analogies drive most signal while LLMs may add marginal value in extreme rankings.