Bitcoin May Hit $180,000 This Year, But Only If This Scenario Plays Out: Amber Data

Amber Data suggests Bitcoin could reach $180,000 this year with a 25% probability, following a market de-leveraging event that reset positioning. The firm assigns a 50% probability to Bitcoin trading between $90,000-$120,000 in a 'muddle through' scenario, with various catalysts determining the ultimate direction.

• →Bitcoin's market structure has been healthier after October's liquidation event cleared excessive leverage from the system.
• →Amber Data assigns 25% probability to Bitcoin reaching $120,000-$180,000 range driven by institutional and sovereign adoption.
• →The base case scenario (50% probability) sees Bitcoin consolidating between $90,000-$120,000 until a macro catalyst emerges.
• →Bearish scenario (20% probability) targets $60,000-$80,000 range if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate sharply.
• →Key indicators include ETF flows, basis rates, and funding rates as early signals for each scenario outcome.