Bitcoin Prints A 2022-Like Iran War Chart, But It’s Not

Macro analyst Alex Krüger argues that while current Iran-Israel conflict charts resemble 2022's Russia-Ukraine pattern, the macro backdrop is fundamentally different. Unlike 2022's aggressive Fed policy amid high inflation, current conditions show lower inflation and positive real rates, suggesting the oil shock may be transitory rather than structural.

• →Current geopolitical shock resembles 2022 charts but differs in crucial macro fundamentals with Fed in wait-and-see mode rather than aggressive tightening cycle.
• →Real Fed rates are positive at +1.2% versus -7.5% in 2022, giving the Fed room to look through temporary oil price spikes.
• →Oil futures curve suggests traders expect temporary disruption rather than permanent supply chain rewiring like in 2022.
• →Iran conflict affects Strait of Hormuz transit (20% of global petroleum) but Iran's own production capacity remains largely sanctioned already.
• →Key risk escalation would be direct hits on refining infrastructure that could turn transitory shock into structural crisis similar to 2022.