21Shares says bitcoin’s post-halving price action ‘still looks familiar,’ but sees recovery toward $100,000 by year-end

Bitcoin has declined approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 and currently trades significantly lower. 21Shares, a major digital asset manager, maintains that post-halving price dynamics remain consistent with historical patterns and forecasts a base-case recovery to $100,000 by year-end.

Bitcoin's significant pullback from its recent all-time high reflects typical post-halving market cycles, where initial euphoria gives way to consolidation and profit-taking. The 50% drawdown, while substantial, aligns with historical precedent following Bitcoin's supply reduction events. 21Shares' analysis suggests the current price action demonstrates familiar technical and behavioral patterns rather than fundamental deterioration, implying the market structure remains intact despite the sharp decline.

Bitcoin halving events occur approximately every four years, reducing block rewards and constraining new supply issuance. These events historically trigger increased volatility as market participants reassess valuation assumptions. The October 2025 peak likely reflected pre-halving optimism, with subsequent consolidation now providing a more sustainable foundation for longer-term appreciation. 21Shares' positioning indicates institutional conviction that current prices represent accumulation opportunities rather than warning signs of deeper weakness.

A recovery toward $100,000 by year-end would represent meaningful upside from current levels while remaining 21% below the recent peak, suggesting measured rather than euphoric expectations. This forecast carries implications for institutional investors evaluating Bitcoin exposure, as professional asset managers signaling recovery conviction can influence capital allocation decisions. The statement also reflects confidence in Bitcoin's macro backdrop and continued institutional adoption despite short-term price weakness.

Market participants should monitor whether Bitcoin stabilizes near key support levels and whether institutional flows accelerate in the coming months, as these factors will validate or challenge 21Shares' recovery thesis.

• →Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its $126,000 October 2025 peak to current depressed levels
• →21Shares characterizes post-halving price action as consistent with historical patterns, not structural weakness
• →Base-case recovery forecast targets $100,000 by year-end, implying 15-25% upside potential
• →Post-halving consolidation phases historically precede sustained recovery in Bitcoin's multi-year cycles
• →Institutional confidence from major asset managers suggests current prices may attract accumulation