US Senator Chris Murphy announced plans to introduce legislation banning prediction markets, calling them 'corrupt and destabilizing.' The move specifically targets platforms like Polymarket amid concerns about war betting and insider trading risks.
Fresh accounts on Polymarket made $1 million hours before U.S. airstrikes on Iran, raising questions about potential insider trading. Meanwhile, one trader who had previously profited $2 million betting against strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day when the attacks occurred.
Suspected insider traders profited over $1.2 million on Polymarket by betting on U.S. strikes against Iran before they occurred. The strikes subsequently caused Bitcoin prices to decline and oil futures on Hyperliquid to surge due to escalating regional tensions.
Joint U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran caused significant market volatility on Polymarket, resulting in $6.5 million in losses. The geopolitical event demonstrates how real-world military actions can trigger massive movements in prediction market platforms.