Coverage of #prediction-markets has intensified over the past month, with 64 articles indexed in the last 30 days across outlets including Crypto Briefing, CoinDesk, and The Block. Bullish sentiment has gained ground, rising 9.8 percentage points to account for 43.8% of recent coverage, while neutral and bearish perspectives each represent 28.1%. Discussion frequently overlaps with regulatory topics and specific platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, alongside mentions of major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum. Scan the article list below to explore recent developments and ongoing debates in this space.
Nasdaq is seeking to enter the prediction markets business through SEC regulatory channels. The exchange giant's move signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets as a legitimate financial product.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, voided $54 million in trades on Ali Khamenei's potential ousting after his death, using a contractual 'death carve-out' clause to avoid payouts. The incident highlights potential issues with prediction market terms and conditions that can nullify large trading positions.
Kalshi prediction market users are protesting contract terms for a market betting on the removal of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, with millions at stake. The controversy centers around a 'death carveout' clause in the contract that traders claim was not properly disclosed or understood when placing bets.
Nasdaq is seeking SEC approval to offer prediction-style binary options tied to its flagship Nasdaq 100 index. The proposed product would mirror the probability-based format commonly used on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Nasdaq has filed a proposal with the SEC to list binary prediction market bets on the Nasdaq-100, following Cboe's similar move into yes-or-no betting products. This represents traditional exchanges' expansion into prediction markets amid growing demand for these financial products.
Kalshi's prediction platform announced it will reimburse users and resolve markets related to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei at the last-traded price before his death was confirmed. The platform is implementing a specific market resolution policy for this geopolitically sensitive prediction market.
Polymarket achieved a record-breaking $478 million in single-day trading volume, with politics-related markets contributing $220 million. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi faced user criticism over a controversial market contract related to Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Kalshi CEO defended the platform's controversial Khamenei market design following user backlash. The prediction market platform is reimbursing all fees, settling pre-death positions at last-traded prices, and providing full refunds for post-death positions.
Six new Polymarket traders netted $1 million by betting on the timing of US strikes against Iran, purchasing shares just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. The suspicious timing of these bets from newly created wallets has raised concerns about potential insider trading on the prediction market platform.
Polymarket has reached record trading volumes with U.S.-Iran military strike prediction markets generating over $529 million in bets. These geopolitical prediction contracts now rank among the platform's most-traded alongside presidential election betting markets.
Polymarket has seen explosive betting activity around Iran-related events, generating over $50 million in total volume across more than a dozen contracts created since Saturday's strikes. The market for Khamenei's removal alone has attracted $45 million in trading volume, highlighting significant user interest in geopolitical prediction markets.
US Senator Chris Murphy announced plans to introduce legislation banning prediction markets, calling them 'corrupt and destabilizing.' The move specifically targets platforms like Polymarket amid concerns about war betting and insider trading risks.
Fresh accounts on Polymarket made $1 million hours before U.S. airstrikes on Iran, raising questions about potential insider trading. Meanwhile, one trader who had previously profited $2 million betting against strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day when the attacks occurred.
Suspected insider traders profited over $1.2 million on Polymarket by betting on U.S. strikes against Iran before they occurred. The strikes subsequently caused Bitcoin prices to decline and oil futures on Hyperliquid to surge due to escalating regional tensions.
Joint U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran caused significant market volatility on Polymarket, resulting in $6.5 million in losses. The geopolitical event demonstrates how real-world military actions can trigger massive movements in prediction market platforms.
Coinbase's head of litigation Ryan VanGrack accused states of 'gaslighting' regarding prediction markets, claiming they are misrepresenting federal law in their efforts to block these platforms. The statement suggests ongoing regulatory tensions between state and federal authorities over prediction market operations.
Eight Polymarket wallets generated over $1.2 million in profits by betting on ZachXBT's investigation into Axiom, sparking concerns about potential insider trading in prediction markets. The suspicious trading patterns have drawn attention from blockchain researchers examining market manipulation tactics.
At least 12 wallets made over $1 million in profits by apparently insider trading on a Polymarket betting market about ZachXBT's investigation results before they were publicly announced. One trader achieved extraordinary returns, turning a $0.14 average entry into $411,000 in profit, highlighting potential market manipulation on prediction platforms.
CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has disclosed details about two recent insider trading investigations it resolved, involving a political candidate and an editor for content creator MrBeast. The platform is providing transparency on how it handles insider trading violations in prediction markets.
US Representatives are introducing legislation to prohibit government officials from participating in prediction markets, addressing concerns about potential insider trading violations. The regulatory response suggests growing scrutiny of prediction markets and their intersection with traditional financial regulations.
Crypto startups raised $95 million in recent funding rounds led by prediction markets and AI agents sectors. Investors are leveraging the $2 trillion crypto market downturn to negotiate more favorable deal terms with portfolio companies, according to Animoca Brands' Yat Siu.
Polymarket has acquired Dome, a prediction market API startup, signaling its strategic move to become the foundational infrastructure provider for the entire predictions industry. This acquisition represents Polymarket's expansion beyond being just a prediction market platform to building the underlying technology stack for the sector.
Polymarket has launched 5-minute cryptocurrency prediction markets, offering faster trading opportunities for crypto assets. The platform is also hinting at a potential $POLY token airdrop, suggesting upcoming tokenization plans.
Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi reached a combined milestone of $1 billion in open interest, with trading volume hitting $400 million for the first time. The surge was primarily driven by Super Bowl-related betting and strong activity in both sports and political prediction markets.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has launched the Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool, which integrates prediction market data into its trading services. This tool aims to provide traders with enhanced market insights by incorporating sentiment analysis from prediction markets.
