#prediction-markets News & Analysis
Coverage of #prediction-markets has intensified over the past month, with 64 articles indexed in the last 30 days across outlets including Crypto Briefing, CoinDesk, and The Block. Bullish sentiment has gained ground, rising 9.8 percentage points to account for 43.8% of recent coverage, while neutral and bearish perspectives each represent 28.1%.
Discussion frequently overlaps with regulatory topics and specific platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, alongside mentions of major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum. Scan the article list below to explore recent developments and ongoing debates in this space.
sentiment · last 30d (64 articles) · +9.8pp bullish vs prior 90dTop sources:Crypto Briefing · 28CoinDesk · 18The Block · 18CoinTelegraph · 16crypto.news · 16
Most-discussed entities:Gemini · 4GPT-5 · 1
AI × CryptoNeutralarXiv – CS AI · Apr 77/10
🤖PolySwarm is a new multi-agent AI framework that uses 50 diverse large language models to trade on prediction markets like Polymarket, combining swarm intelligence with arbitrage strategies. The system outperformed single-model baselines in probability calibration and includes latency arbitrage capabilities to exploit pricing inefficiencies across markets.
AI × CryptoBullishcrypto.news · Apr 67/10
🤖Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are experiencing explosive growth, now clearing nearly $24 billion monthly as they transition from crypto niches to mainstream finance. The sector's evolution is being driven by AI bots, Wall Street capital, and new CFTC regulatory frameworks that are legitimizing these platforms.
GeneralBullishcrypto.news · Apr 67/10
📰A federal appeals court ruled in favor of Kalshi, determining that CFTC-regulated prediction market contracts fall under federal jurisdiction rather than state gambling laws. The decision prevents New Jersey from blocking Kalshi's sports-related event contracts, establishing important precedent for prediction market regulation.
CryptoBearishUnchained · Apr 67/10
⛓️Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are facing significant challenges as questions arise about their legitimacy and regulatory standing. Both platforms are encountering setbacks that could impact their operations and the broader prediction market industry.
CryptoNeutralCoinTelegraph · Apr 67/10
⛓️Sygnum's Fabian Dori highlights how prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are becoming essential macro analysis tools for crypto trading desks as Iran war odds fluctuate. These platforms are providing real-time insights into geopolitical risks that directly impact cryptocurrency markets.
GeneralNeutralCrypto Briefing · Apr 57/10
📰A viral song has contributed to increased predictions of Iranian regime instability, with odds of regime collapse rising to 13.5% by June 30. The development reflects growing internal unrest and potential political power struggles within Iran.
CryptoBullishMessari · Mar 267/10
⛓️Polymarket has captured 31% market share of the prediction markets sector, processing $31 billion in volume from September 2025 to February 2026. The platform received a $9 billion valuation from Intercontinental Exchange in October 2025 and is now implementing taker fees to monetize its volume, while reportedly seeking a $20 billion FDV valuation.
CryptoBearishCoinDesk · Mar 177/10
⛓️U.S. Democrats from both chambers of Congress introduced new legislation targeting government officials who may be using insider knowledge to place bets on prediction markets regarding military actions. The bill was prompted by concerns about potential prior-knowledge trading on U.S. war-related activities in prediction markets.
CryptoBearishcrypto.news · Mar 167/10
⛓️Democrats are pushing the DEATH BETS Act to crack down on prediction markets like Polymarket following billions in bets on potential U.S.-Iran military strikes and insider trading scandals. The legislation specifically targets prediction markets that allow trading on war, terrorism, and death-related events.
CryptoBearishThe Block · Mar 167/10
⛓️Polymarket bettors allegedly sent death threats to a reporter in connection with reporting on missile strikes, related to a prediction market with over $14 million wagered on whether Iran struck Israel on a specific date. The incident highlights risks and volatility in high-stakes prediction markets tied to geopolitical events.
CryptoBearishCoinTelegraph · Mar 167/10
⛓️Prediction market activity surged on Iran-related contracts as geopolitical tensions escalated. The CFTC opened rulemaking proceedings while Democrats in Congress moved to ban war and death-related betting markets.
CryptoBearishCryptoSlate · Mar 157/10
⛓️Polymarket and Kalshi are seeking $20 billion valuations in fundraising talks, even as Washington moves toward regulatory crackdowns triggered by $700M in Iran war-related betting and $1.2M in suspicious profits. The timing highlights tension between prediction market growth and increasing regulatory scrutiny.
CryptoBearishBlockonomi · Mar 157/10
⛓️Polymarket prediction market shows a 57% probability that Ethereum could lose its #2 cryptocurrency ranking by market cap in 2026. Competition from Solana's growing DeFi ecosystem and rising stablecoin market caps like Tether are challenging Ethereum's position, though it maintains the largest DeFi infrastructure.
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CryptoBearishcrypto.news · Mar 117/10
⛓️A new U.S. Senate bill introduced by Adam Schiff aims to prohibit betting markets related to war, assassination, and death, which could significantly impact prediction market platforms like Polymarket. The legislation targets what critics call 'death markets' and represents growing regulatory scrutiny of prediction betting platforms.
CryptoBearishDecrypt – AI · Mar 117/10
⛓️Democrats have introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would prohibit CFTC-registered exchanges from listing prediction market contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or death. This legislative proposal directly targets certain types of prediction market offerings currently available on regulated platforms.
GeneralBearishThe Block · Mar 107/10
📰An Ohio judge denied Kalshi's motion for an injunction in the prediction market platform's lawsuit against state gaming authorities. The judge ruled that there is no historical evidence showing Congress intended to preempt state gambling laws.
CryptoNeutralcrypto.news · Mar 107/10
⛓️CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is proposing to end the de facto ban on prediction markets by implementing a derivatives-style regulatory framework under federal control rather than state jurisdiction. This move aims to bring prediction markets and crypto out of the legal grey area through comprehensive federal oversight.
AI × CryptoBullishBankless · Mar 107/10
🤖Polymarket has partnered with Palantir and TWG AI to deploy artificial intelligence tools for monitoring and preventing suspicious trading activity on its prediction market platform. This collaboration aims to enhance market integrity through automated detection and reporting of potentially manipulative trading behaviors.
CryptoBearishProtos · Mar 107/10
⛓️The article discusses how assassination markets have become legal and are hosted on prediction platforms like Polymarket. This development raises concerns about the intersection of prediction markets and potentially dangerous financial incentives, though the article suggests Trump may not be directly at risk.
AI × CryptoBullishCrypto Briefing · Mar 107/10
🤖Polymarket has partnered with Peter Thiel's Palantir to develop AI-powered oversight tools for prediction markets. The collaboration aims to enhance transparency and trust in the platform, potentially establishing new industry standards for prediction market operations.
CryptoBullishCoinTelegraph · Mar 107/10
⛓️CFTC Chair Michael Selig endorsed blockchain-based prediction markets as 'truth machines' that could enhance price discovery and public information. His support comes amid ongoing legal challenges from several US states against these prediction market platforms.
AIBearishFortune Crypto · Mar 97/10
🧠Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz warns that AI's consumption of internet comments will degrade global information quality by producing 'garbage' content. This deterioration threatens traditional media sources and extends to prediction markets within the broader information ecosystem.
CryptoBullishCrypto Briefing · Mar 67/10
⛓️Kalshi and Polymarket, two major prediction market platforms, are reportedly in discussions for new funding rounds that could value each company at approximately $20 billion. This represents a significant valuation milestone for the prediction markets sector.
CryptoBullishMessari · Mar 67/10
⛓️Crypto venture funding reached $202 million across 20 projects this week, led by ARQ's $60M and Crossover Markets' $31M raises. Meanwhile, corporate treasury adoption continued with $333 million in digital asset purchases by Strategy, Bitmine, and ProCap Financial.
$BTC
CryptoBearishCoinTelegraph · Mar 67/10
⛓️Democrats plan to introduce legislation to restrict prediction markets after Senator Chris Murphy alleged that people with inside information about Trump administration decisions made bets on Iran strike timing. The proposed bill comes amid concerns about potential insider trading on geopolitical events through prediction markets.
