Bitcoin's long-term holders are showing signs of weakening as their monthly profit realizations fall below 1.0, though annual profits remain positive at 1.84. The analysis suggests Bitcoin is entering a fragile transitional phase, with LTH realized profits tapering compared to previous cycles.
Market analyst Yonsei_dent predicts Bitcoin could drop to $31,500-$38,000 based on historical cycle patterns and the Supply In Profit indicator. This would represent a 70-75% drawdown from the cycle high, similar to the 2022 bear market that lasted six months in the bottom zone.
Crypto analyst Crypto Patel claims Bitcoin has entered bearish territory after breaking below $107,000 support, projecting a potential decline to $35,000 by 2026. The analysis is based on Fibonacci retracement levels and historical cycle patterns showing 77-84% corrections in previous bear markets.
Bitcoin is experiencing its worst losing streak since 2018, with BTC down nearly 50% from its peak over a five-month period. Analysts are divided on whether this represents early market repricing or indicates further declines ahead.
Bitcoin could potentially bottom out at $51,000 based on MVRV pricing bands analysis, with the current bear market showing support levels between $51,558 and $54,703. The analysis uses on-chain analytics that compare market value to realized value, with the -1 standard deviation historically marking reversal points in past bear markets.