#interest-rates News & Analysis

Iran Rejects Peace Talk Claims, Leaving Bitcoin Stuck At $70K

Fed’s Goolsbee warns rate cuts may be delayed until 2027 on Iran war oil shock

Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee warned that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 if geopolitical tensions in Iran sustain elevated oil prices and keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target. This statement signals the central bank's concern that external shocks may constrain monetary policy flexibility beyond previously anticipated timelines.

Japan’s 10-Year Yield Hits 25-Year High, Signaling Shift in Global Liquidity Trends

Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 2.393%, its highest level since 1999, signaling a major shift from decades of near-zero interest rate policy. This development threatens to unwind carry trades and reduce global liquidity that has supported stock and cryptocurrency markets.

XRP Wins Major Regulatory Clarity As Commodity Status Emerges

Oil, SOFR and a $10m trade just rewrote your crypto macro

A trader made $10 million on SOFR options betting on 'higher for longer' interest rates, demonstrating how macro positioning upstream of crypto generates significant returns. Oil-driven inflation is forcing markets to abandon expectations of early Fed rate cuts, creating major macro trading opportunities.

Next week could spice things up for bitcoin as seven central banks face an inflation test

Seven major central banks including the Federal Reserve will announce rate decisions next week amid rising oil prices driven by war. This convergence of monetary policy decisions and inflation pressures could significantly impact bitcoin and broader financial markets.

Bitcoin could be the big winner if the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on for months

Macro strategist Mark Connors suggests that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could benefit Bitcoin through war-driven government spending, increasing national debt, and lower interest rates. These macroeconomic factors could create conditions that support Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

ECB’s Lane says persistent inflation could still force rate hikes

ECB chief economist Philip Lane signaled that interest rate hikes remain possible if inflation persists longer than anticipated, despite the central bank's pause in March. This statement keeps monetary tightening risks alive for the eurozone economy and signals the ECB's readiness to act if price pressures don't subside as expected.

Morpho Unveils Fixed-Rate Protocol Morpho Midnight

Morpho, the second-largest DeFi lending protocol with $7.7B in TVL, has unveiled Morpho Midnight, a fixed-rate protocol. This launch represents a significant expansion of Morpho's product offerings and addresses the growing demand for predictable borrowing costs in decentralized finance.

Philip R. Lane: The economic outlook and monetary policy in the euro area

Philip R. Lane, ECB Chief Economist, addresses the euro area's economic outlook and monetary policy trajectory, discussing inflation pressures, growth dynamics, and the central bank's policy response framework in the context of ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Investors are writing off any move from the Fed this month—collapsing talks in Iran have sealed the deal

Investors have abandoned expectations for Federal Reserve action in the current month as geopolitical tensions escalate, with collapsed Iran negotiations removing a potential market stabilizer. UBS economists warn that second-round inflation and labor market effects remain uncertain, suggesting the Fed may maintain its cautious stance amid macroeconomic complexity.

Larry McDonald: Transitioning to inflationary regimes impacts valuations, $4 trillion shifts from tech to energy, and the rise of capital-intensive tech businesses | The Pomp Podcast

Larry McDonald highlights a significant macroeconomic shift where $4 trillion is moving from technology stocks to energy assets amid inflationary pressures. This transition reflects changing valuation dynamics as central banks maintain higher interest rates, favoring capital-intensive sectors and challenging traditional growth-at-any-cost tech valuations.

Bitcoin gains after core CPI rose a less-than-forecast 0.2% in March.

Bitcoin rallied following the release of March core CPI data, which increased 0.2% monthly—below economist expectations. While headline inflation rose 0.9% due to energy cost spikes linked to Iran-related geopolitical tensions, the softer core reading suggests underlying price pressures may be moderating, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions.

‘Skunk at the Party’: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon Warns of Potential Market Impact of Inflation in 2026

Fed Officials Sound Alarm: Inflation Risks Escalating as Rate Cuts Remain Distant

Federal Reserve officials are warning that inflation risks are escalating due to tariffs and Middle East conflicts, pushing inflation into dangerous territory. Rate cuts appear increasingly unlikely as the Fed maintains its tight monetary policy stance to combat rising inflationary pressures.

Wall Street Banks Push Fed Rate Cut Expectations to Fall Amid Robust Economic Data

Wall Street banks are pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following stronger-than-expected economic data. Citigroup has delayed its rate cut forecast to September after March jobs data exceeded estimates, while JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warns that geopolitical risks could keep interest rates elevated longer.

Powell’s inflation warning dampens rate cut expectations for June FOMC meeting: FT

Federal Reserve Chair Powell's cautious stance on inflation has reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts at the June FOMC meeting. His warning suggests the Fed will maintain high interest rates for an extended period, which could impact economic growth and market stability.

Central banks to raise rates amid inflation from Iran’s oil supply cuts: FT

Central banks are expected to raise interest rates in response to inflation caused by Iran's oil supply cuts, according to the Financial Times. Rising rates could hinder economic growth and complicate monetary policy strategies for central banks globally.

Luigi Buttiglione: The US market’s technological edge drives unmatched returns, rising productivity will elevate neutral interest rates, and AI’s dual impact reshapes the economy | Forward Guidance

Luigi Buttiglione analyzes how AI's disruptive impact is driving US economic productivity gains and reshaping interest rate policy considerations. The technological advantages in US markets are generating superior returns while AI's dual effects create both opportunities and challenges for the broader economy.

Jeff Park: Wartime dynamics could drive Bitcoin prices higher, rising rates challenge traditional beliefs, and Bitcoin’s role as freedom money is evolving | The Pomp Podcast

Jeff Park discusses how wartime dynamics and rising interest rates could potentially drive Bitcoin prices higher, challenging traditional financial assumptions. The analysis explores Bitcoin's evolving role as 'freedom money' in the current geopolitical and economic environment.

Bitcoin Holds As Gold Posts Worst Week Since 1983 Amid Iran War

Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Rising Middle East Tensions and Market Volatility

Trump Pushes for Immediate Fed Rate Cut as March Policy Meeting Kicks Off

Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve for an immediate rate cut as the March policy meeting begins, despite CME futures showing a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged due to ongoing inflation concerns.

Trump ups pressure for Fed chair Powell to cut rates ‘right now’

President Trump is pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates immediately, comparing the decision to something a third-grade student would understand. This political pressure on monetary policy could have significant implications for financial markets.

Fed headlines central bank rate decisions, Gemini earnings: Crypto Week Ahead

The upcoming week starting March 16 features Federal Reserve rate decisions as the central focus, alongside Gemini earnings reports. These events are expected to significantly impact cryptocurrency markets and investor sentiment.